Deebo Samuel contract analysis: How 49ers and their star receiver made it work

At the NFL Scouting Combine in March, general manager John Lynch already knew that the 49ers would likely have to bide their time in signing receiver Deebo Samuel to a lucrative contract extension.

Samuel’s agent, Tory Dandy, also represented wideouts A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf. All three players, drafted in 2019 and eligible for new deals in the 2022 offseason with a year still remaining on their rookie contracts, were in very similar boats.

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But Samuel had an extra feather in his cap. He was an irreplaceable star coming off an unprecedented season at two positions for the 49ers. Counting the playoffs, Samuel — who’d dubbed himself a “wide back” — had just become the first player in NFL history to amass 1,500 receiving yards and 500 rushing yards in a single season.

“Tory is going to be a busy man,” Lynch said with a laugh shortly after arriving in Indianapolis. “A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Deebo. It would be nice to beat ’em to the punch because someone is going to set the market really high.

“But it’s not going to be easy coming off that season. There’s such a buzz around (Samuel) right now, but he has earned whatever he’s going to get.”

Remember that Lynch spoke those words before the wide receiver market went bananas. The Jaguars would sign Christian Kirk to a deal averaging $18 million per year (APY) two weeks later. Tyreek Hill then hit $30 million APY (a record for the position) with the Dolphins before Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp, among others, also signed blockbuster new contracts.

A perfect storm had hit. Dandy had three clients in similar situations looking for new contracts in a red-hot receiver market, with Samuel being the one who’d likely fetch the most fully guaranteed money of the trio.

The four-month tempest — rife with drama that included social media scrubbings, a trade request, overanalyzed footage of Samuel in nightclubs and a weeklong training camp hold-in — finally passed Monday. Samuel signed a three-year deal worth up to $73.5 million with the 49ers. He’s under contract through 2025.

That came just days after Metcalf had re-signed with Seattle on a comparable contract and about three months after the Titans had traded Brown to the Eagles, who awarded him a new four-year deal worth up to $100 million.

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Samuel’s relatively complex contract managed to satisfy both the wideout and the 49ers while also falling in place with Dandy’s work on deals for Brown and Metcalf. That was no simple task, but the ink is now drying.

Deebo Samuel contract breakdown

*Fully guaranteed
**Portion is fully guaranteed 

Chief negotiator Paraag Marathe was again the architect of this contract for the 49ers. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo’s $27 million cap hit still on the books, he had less than $5 million of 2022 salary-cap space to work with.

Here’s how Marathe and Dandy made it work.

Dual bonus structure: Cap management

By rule, the salary-cap impact of fully guaranteed money paid as either a signing bonus or an option bonus is amortized over a maximum of five years. Marathe, similarly to how he crafted a deal for linebacker Fred Warner last year, employed both bonuses for Samuel.

There’s a signing bonus worth just north of $24 million (highlighted in blue above in the PRTD SB column) — its cap hit is spread evenly over the life of the entire contract, including a void year in 2026 designed to stretch the hits out as far as possible. There’s then a fully guaranteed $9.2 million option bonus (highlighted in green above in the OPT BON column), which doesn’t kick in until 2023 but is amortized just like the signing bonus after that.

This mechanism allowed the 49ers to award Samuel a large chunk of fully guaranteed money — those two bonuses total more than $33 million, exceeding Metcalf’s $30 million signing bonus that is a record for receivers — while keeping the 2022 salary-cap hit as small as possible.

In fact, Samuel’s post-deal cap hit for 2022 is $6.7 million — just $1.8 million higher than it was when only his rookie contract existed. Even after re-signing Samuel, the 49ers still have more than $3 million of cap space.

Of course, Samuel’s contract grows much pricier by 2024, but the 49ers are fine with this. With the NFL’s new media deals kicking in and expected to infuse over $100 billion of new money into the league’s coffers, the salary-cap ceiling — which is tied to revenue — is expected to surge. The 49ers are comfortable pushing bills into that future, as they already showed in March by restructuring the contracts of Arik Armstead and George Kittle.

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Total guarantees vs. full guarantees

There’s an important distinction to be made between total guarantees and full guarantees. The former includes money that’s only guaranteed for injury, while the latter is money that’s guaranteed for skill.

Full guarantees, then, are the more coveted of the two. They’re a fundamental measurement of contract quality from any given player’s perspective.

It’s long been suspected that Samuel would fetch more fully guaranteed money than Brown or Metcalf. That’s why Lynch said what he did back at the combine. He knew that Samuel’s historic season, combined with the fact that Dandy represented all three wideouts, would likely dictate that Brown and Metcalf sign first to set parameters for the 49ers.

That ended up happening. Brown signed for $56.5 million in total guarantees and $40 million in full guarantees. Metcalf signed for $58.22 million in total guarantees and $31 million in full guarantees.

Samuel then signed for $58.16 million in total guarantees and $41 million in full guarantees, a specifically chosen amount that Marathe and Dandy had to cobble together from various parts of the contract.

Here’s what comprises Samuel’s full guarantee: $24.035 million signing bonus + $9.215 million option bonus + $965,000 2022 base salary + $1.08 million 2023 base salary + $4.555 million portion of his 2024 base salary + $750,000 total in 2023 per-game roster bonus money + $200,000 in 2023 workout bonus + $200,000 in 2024 workout bonus = $41 million fully guaranteed.

(To calculate Samuel’s total guarantees, simply substitute his $21 million 2024 base salary instead of the $4.555 million portion of it above, as the entirety of it is guaranteed for injury. Add in Samuel’s $750,000 total in 2024 per-game roster bonus money, which is also guaranteed for injury, and the sum comes out to $58.16 million in total guarantees.)

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In case anyone lost count, there are eight components to the fully guaranteed sum above. Yes, this was more complex than usual for Marathe. The 49ers don’t usually guarantee per-game roster and workout bonus money. But they did here, and it pushed Samuel’s total of fully guaranteed money past Brown’s $40 million.

A tale of three Tory Dandy clients

Blue highlights represent highest mark of the three receivers.

Notice the neat symmetry above. Each wideout took the top spot in a different category. Brown’s $25 million APY led the way, while Metcalf’s $58.22 in total guarantees barely edged out Samuel’s $58.16 million.

This, like Samuel’s $41 million title in the fully guaranteed column — which carries the most weight — was clearly by design.

Running back incentives

Speaking after Samuel signed his contract Monday, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said that there were no restrictions to Samuel’s usage under this contract. Samuel rushed for 365 yards and eight touchdowns during the 2021 regular season, and the 49ers are again free to use him as a running back whenever it’s needed moving forward.

“To have that option to do that, you can’t do that with anybody, you have to do that with a special player, and Deebo is a special player,” Shanahan said. “And I think that’s why he’s earned this contract that he’s got. And I think that’s why he is going to continue to earn it going forward.”

Dandy did make sure to include up to $1.95 million in incentives that are tied to potential Samuel production at running back. This explains disparate reports of the contract’s value — $71.55 million versus $73.5 million.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Samuel can earn $650,000 for each year that he has 380 or more rushing yards. Samuel can also earn a one-time incentive bonus of $150,000 if he scores three rushing touchdowns in any one year.

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The $650,000 incentive is considered not likely to be earned (NLTBE) and therefore does not count against the 49ers’ salary cap, since Samuel came up 15 yards short of the total last season. If he surpasses the 380-yard total in 2022, the 49ers will pay a deferred charge on the 2023 cap.

This incentive opportunity maxes out at $1.95 million, so if Samuel surpasses 380 rushing yards in each of the next three seasons, he won’t be eligible for the bonus in his fourth.

Samuel will be 29 years old during that fourth season, by the way. He’ll turn 30 in January 2026, just about three months ahead of the scheduled expiration of this contract.

There’s a chance, of course, that Samuel and the 49ers will be back at the negotiating table a year before then. Both sides would likely welcome another round of negotiations before the term of this deal looms because that’d probably mean three more exemplary seasons from Samuel.

But for the time being, both sides are happy. Finally. Samuel has a massive new lump of guaranteed money with a chance to earn even more by age 30, and the 49ers have one of their team’s heartbeats under contract for the entire back half of his 20s.

Those are prime years. Now, Samuel and the 49ers will look to make the most of them.

(Photo: Josie Lepe / Associated Press)

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